The United States predicts the five major black swan events in 2012: China's GDP deceleration will be on the list

The United States predicts the five major black swan events in 2012: China's GDP deceleration will be on the list [Reported on the US "Forbes" biweekly website on December 20] Title: 2012...

[US "Forbes" biweekly website reported on December 20] Title: 2012 Five major black swan event predictions in 2019

> The black swan event conceived by Nazim?#23612; Gulas?#22612; Lieb in the book "Black Swan" has become a metaphor for those events that will have a major impact on society and should have been predicted but were not expected.

The following are predictions of five major events that may be regarded as black swan events in hindsight.

1. China's GDP growth will be lower than 8.5%

China's manufacturing industry slowed down in November, and China's official purchasing managers index fell to 49 from 50.4 in October. An index above 50 means the sector is growing, while a reading below 50 means the sector is contracting. Some economists believe China's recent cut in its reserve requirement ratio may signal concerns about an economic slowdown. The crisis in Europe will be the main reason for the slowdown.

Much of China's growth comes from its manufacturing sector, and when manufacturing slows down, its economy slows down as well. Earlier this month, it was estimated that China's economic growth would slow to between 9% and 9.5% in 2012. It is expected that the People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio several times in 2012 to stimulate economic growth.

2. The S&P 500 Index will fall by more than 25%

Taking into account all the uncertainties and problems in developed countries, the S&P 500 Index has increased by more than 2% in the past three months, and has fallen by less than 2% so far this year.

Since the debt problems of the United States and Europe have not been resolved, a black swan event may occur.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 Index will continue to fall below the 200-day moving average. Over the past four months, the S&P 500 has been exhibiting a diamond formation, which is typically a continuation pattern. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 has been trending lower since reaching its 2011 peak in April, a continuation of the pattern that should lead to a decline in the market. A forecast decline of 25% would take the S&P 500 to around the 1,000 level last seen in July 2010.

3. The U.S. dollar index will rise above 85

As problems in Europe and the United States continue to emerge, global stock markets will begin to fall, and investors will flock to non-risk assets such as government bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury Department and the U.S. dollar.

In April 2011, when the U.S. stock market reached its peak, the U.S. dollar index bottomed out from an unprecedented 72.86. Since then, the U.S. dollar index has risen about 10% to currently trade around 80.

If the target is set at 85, then the entire process of the U.S. Dollar Index rising from its all-time low is about 60% complete. When U.S. stocks bottomed in 2010, the U.S. Dollar Index was around 88, so if stocks fell, that was a possibility.

4. The European Central Bank will cut interest rates to below 1%

During the decline in global stock markets, the European Central Bank will try to stimulate economic growth and investment by lowering interest rates, while the United States is unlikely to cut interest rates further.

Currently, the European Central Bank's interest rate is 1%, while the interest rate in the United States is 0.25%, Japan is 0.1%, and the Bank of England is 0. 5%. So the only potential meaningful cut is a rate cut from the European Central Bank.

5. More quantitative easing or a rescue package

As investors continue to flock to risk-free trades, coupled with interest rate cuts, dollar liquidity swaps, and if bank reserve ratio cuts don't work, global leaders will have to invest in greater efforts, such as a new round of quantitative easing or some form of rescue package.