US media: China’s five major measures to respond to Obama’s “Asia-Pacific pivot”

US media: China’s five major measures to respond to Obama’s “Asia-Pacific pivot” U.S. President Obama launched a new military in early 2012...

U.S. President Obama launched a new military strategy in early 2012, emphasizing that although the United States faces budget pressures, it will strive to ensure its "military superpower" status and shift its military focus to the Asia-Pacific region. To a certain extent, the U.S.’s pivot to the Asia-Pacific is considered to be out of consideration to encircle China. The U.S. media published an article on April 5 speculating on China’s five major measures to deal with the United States.

On January 5, 2012, U.S. President Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced a new military strategy titled "Maintaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for National Defense in the 21st Century." The new strategy implies that the United States will shrink its army and reduce its military presence in Europe, and instead strengthen its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain the "security and prosperity" of the Asia-Pacific.

On April 5, CNN published an article by Rober Kelly, a professor at the School of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan ​​National University in South Korea, saying that the measures taken by the United States were considered by China to be intended to contain China's rise. The West is discussing China's possible response measures.

1. Or pull South Korea into its orbit

This may sound ridiculous. As we all know, South Korea is an ally of the United States. However, Kerry believes that there is traditional anti-American sentiment in South Korea, even though the United States and South Korea are allies. However, to a large extent, South Korea needs the United States rather than being an ally of the United States. There is no very important close relationship between the United States and South Korea.

Many Koreans believe that the United States must bear major responsibility for dividing the country, insulting South Korean leaders, unprovoked provocations to North Korea, unfair trade with South Korea, and the abuses of the US military. The Korean Peninsula hopes to be reunified, and many Koreans believe that Chinese diplomacy has advantages in this regard. China can be said to be North Korea's ally. However, Koreans understand that the prerequisite for reunification is the withdrawal of US troops stationed in South Korea. China and Korea are very similar culturally and both belong to Confucian culture. South Korea also does not declare that China is its main enemy like Japan and the United States.

2. Improve Sino-Indian relations

Sino-Indian relations have never been warm, and there are also tensions on the border. However, one thing to note is that if India does not enter the US camp, China will definitely benefit. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the media during the Seoul Nuclear Security Summit that "China cannot be contained."

Singh said: "Our goal is to maintain cooperative relations with China and the United States. I don't think a country as powerful and dynamic as China can be contained." He also emphasized that even if US-India relations continue to improve, a powerful and dynamic China cannot be contained.

There are two subtexts in Singh's above speech: First, India does not agree with the United States' "containment" of China and will not follow the United States; second, India will maintain a balanced diplomacy between China and the United States, that is, as he said, "maintain cooperative relations with China and the United States."

>Singer’s words are worth pondering. He actually elaborated on India's diplomatic stance towards China. India will not use it as a bomb for the United States to attack China. Although the United States has been wooing India and trying to form the so-called "Quadruple Alliance" of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India to "contain" China's development momentum in Asia, India will not follow the United States.

3. Prioritize the development of missiles and drones

It is not wise for China to confront the United States in the Western Pacific. Japan's performance during World War II is the best proof. The Americans' counterattack can be said to be armed to the teeth. China should first pursue regional leadership (East Asia) and then open competition with the United States in the Pacific. Therefore, intervention and area blocking (access-denial) are optional steps.

Launching missiles and sending drones is very effective against expensive and slow-moving US aircraft carriers. Currently, China is vigorously researching aircraft carriers, but missile construction and drones actually save time and effort.

4. Continue to buy European bonds

Buying European government bonds can increase China's leverage against the West and remind the United States that China is its largest debtor. China could simply spend a lot of its money elsewhere instead of in U.S. Treasuries. Kerry said that buying European debt may lead to an increase in U.S. interest rates and let Americans know that appropriate policies should be adopted towards China, a "big bank." At the same time, it can also prevent Europe from getting entangled with China and the United States in Asia.

5. Maintain friendly relations with the "thorns in the flesh" of the United States

As we all know, there are many "thorns in the flesh" of the United States around the world, including Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Cuba. The outside world unanimously believes that the United States spends too much energy and money in dealing with these so-called "bad guys." As China, these countries are certainly good tools. China's maintaining good relations with these countries will make the United States believe that China may support any country. The advantage of this diplomatic strategy is that while it consumes U.S. military expenses, it also stirs up the nerves of the United States.

However, analysts believe that there are also flaws in Kerry's five major countermeasures, especially the one that pulls South Korea into China's orbit. In the early postwar period, the United States and South Korea had already established an alliance. In October 1953, South Korea and the United States signed a mutual defense treaty and established a military alliance. Currently, the United States has approximately 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea. It has wartime command of the South Korean military and has security and defense obligations towards South Korea. It can also be understood that the United States controls all military power in South Korea, including the US military and South Korean troops on the Korean Peninsula. The supreme commander is an American. South Korea is also the only country in the world with foreign troops stationed in its capital (except for Iraq and Afghanistan). Although the United States will soon hand over military command power, so far South Koreans still cannot freely control their own country's military. It is very difficult for China to get closer to South Korea.

US report says China's strategic military deception has led experts to misjudge

A report released by the United States on the 5th stated that the Chinese military continues to make progress in the production of modern weapons and equipment, but China's selective transparency or strategic deception may mislead foreign observers outside the military and intelligence communities.

According to a Voice of America report on April 5, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission) under the US Congress released a research report on the 5th, which listed several cases in which the United States misassessed China's independent development of weapons. U.S. analysts and policymakers will see the Chinese military continue to make progress in producing modern weapons and equipment, while also seeing the People's Liberation Army's combat capabilities continue to grow. The United States must improve its analytical tools and capabilities to keep up with these changes.

The report pointed out that since 1979, with rapid economic growth, China has launched a large-scale military modernization operation. Since the mid-1990s, China has accelerated military reform and its defense spending has grown steadily. China's 2008 national defense white paper stated that it would lay a "solid foundation" for national defense development by 2010, "complete a major transition to mechanization and informatization by 2020," and achieve national defense modernization by the middle of this century.

China's military modernization process includes the development of its own weapons systems, some of which have progressed in development, procurement, and deployment beyond the estimates of the United States and other countries. This research report focuses on four key weapon systems that surprised American analysts: including the Type 039A/B/041 Yuan-class diesel-electric attack submarine, the SC-19 anti-satellite system, the Dongfeng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, and the J-20 stealth fighter.

Based on the study of these four cases, the publicly published U.S. government analysis report failed to draw a credible conclusion on the trend of China’s independent research and development of weapons. A lot of evidence shows that the US analytical report failed to predict the launch of the Yuan-class submarine by the Chinese Navy in 2004, let alone the possibility that such a submarine would use an air-independent power system (AIP). On the other hand, U.S. officials are very sensitive to China's development of anti-satellite weapons. Multiple reports indicate that U.S. officials were aware that China might test an anti-satellite weapon in 2007, although they may not have estimated the specific timing of the test. However, U.S. government analysts accurately predicted several developments, such as the SC-19 anti-satellite system; however, China's selective transparency, or strategic deception, in declaring its opposition to the development of space weapons may have misled foreign observers outside the military and intelligence communities.

Several cases show that the United States miscalculated the speed of China's independent research and development of weapons. Although U.S. intelligence agencies know that China developed land-based anti-ship ballistic missiles in 2008, U.S. academics and government figures have pointed out that the United States has underestimated the development process of China's anti-ship ballistic missiles. U.S. Department of Defense officials estimate that China's anti-ship ballistic missiles achieved initial operational capability in December 2010, but media in China and Taiwan have reported that the Chinese People's Liberation Army has already deployed them on the ground. The United States originally estimated that China would conduct a prototype test flight of the fifth-generation fighter J-20 in 2012, but the United States once again underestimated its development speed. China conducted a test flight in January 2011.

Information occlusion or deception: China keeps many military activities secret or intentionally sends out false and misleading information. In recent years, U.S. defense officials have often complained about the lack of transparency in China's military modernization development.

Underestimating the reform of China’s defense industry: China’s military industry, once seen as bloated, rigid and poorly adapted, has performed beyond critics’ expectations over the past decade. Although China's defense industry still faces many problems, its ability to produce modern weapons has greatly exceeded the level of the 1980s and 1990s.

It is difficult to understand China’s national security decision-making process: The Chinese government’s decision-making process is not transparent, especially in terms of military policy and national security issues. The public appearances and testing of some indigenously developed weapons have exposed bureaucratic problems with coordination and possible divisions between civilian and military officials in China's decision-making hierarchy.

Underestimating the extent to which Beijing feels threatened: Many media, academic and government analysts may not fully realize that Chinese leaders view the United States as a fundamental threat to China’s security. In recent years, several incidents have strengthened this threat perception, including the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996 and the accidental bombing of the annex building of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade (former Yugoslavia) by US warplanes in 1998.

China increases investment in science and technology: Over the past 20 years, China has vigorously stimulated independent scientific research and development capabilities, whether through scientific education, national scientific research funding, purchasing foreign technology, or engaging in industrial espionage, which have greatly enhanced China's ability to produce advanced weapons. In addition, China has also stepped up its exploration of dual-use technologies, such as multi-purpose electronic products that can be used in the defense industry.

Lack of understanding or attention to publicly available Chinese materials: As the United States has increased its focus on publicly available materials, especially academic technical journals and related publications, researchers have corrected some of their past mistakes. Increasing attention to China’s authoritative media news and political academic publications can also promote understanding of the worldview of Chinese leaders.

Trends over the past few decades are no longer a reliable guide to studying China's defense industry. Furthermore, U.S. observers should not take the Chinese government's military policy statements at face value, which may be deceptive or issued by institutions (such as the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs) that have no real say in military matters. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission believes that U.S. analysts and policymakers should see that China’s ability to develop modern advanced weapons will continue to improve, and the combat capabilities of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will also increase accordingly.