Wen Yang: What is the strategic reality behind the Diaoyu Islands?

>Wen Yang: What is the strategic reality behind the Diaoyu Islands? On the 7th, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the Japanese government is planning to purchase the Diaoyu Islands and realize "nationalization"...

On the 7th, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the Japanese government is studying the purchase and "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands. The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded strongly that the sacred territory will never be traded casually, and the Chinese government will resolutely safeguard its sovereignty. On the 9th, the Chinese Navy announced that it would conduct live-fire exercises in the East China Sea from the 10th to the 15th.

Following the China-Philippines dispute over Huangyan Island and the China-Vietnam dispute over the Saudi Arabian Sea, the China-Japan Diaoyu Islands dispute also escalated rapidly overnight, and was heading directly towards a war sooner or later.

I don’t know if the Chinese government has a strategic plan to fight a war within one or two years. If so, what is the purpose of the war? Will such a local war help improve China's current overall strategic environment? Will it help ultimately resolve disputes over island sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in China’s waters? Will it help stabilize the situation in East Asia?

If there is no plan to go to war, and it is still an overall strategic plan to avoid military conflicts, extend the strategic opportunity period for peaceful development as much as possible, and ensure that China will have a "peaceful rise" for another 20 to 30 years, then why is it so passive? If anyone makes a small move, China will stride up the stairs, being pushed along by others. If Vietnam makes a move, China will establish Sansha City; if the Philippines makes a move, China's maritime surveillance will carry out regular rights protection patrols and law enforcement; if Japan makes a move, the Chinese Navy will conduct live-fire exercises. What’s next? If Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines hold a joint military exercise, or the three countries of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the 10 ASEAN countries hold a joint military exercise, or even simply involve Australia and New Zealand to build a "Pacific NATO", if it is forced to this point, how many steps can China go up?

The 2012 RIM-Pacific military exercise led by the United States and participated by 22 countries is underway. In fact, this is a preview of the "Pacific NATO". Everything is ready and all we need is an east wind. This east wind is none other than a reckless military action by China. Even if China does nothing, the mere act of naval expansion is enough to make all countries in the Pacific Rim gather under the call of the United States. Once China has a record of using force, no matter what the reason or circumstances, it will immediately confirm the conclusion like the Sword of Damocles: China's rise cannot be a peaceful rise, and you will still follow the old path of Germany and Japan!

What are Western strategists waiting for? For many of them, once they regard China as a replica of Germany and Japan, or a replica of Soviet Russia, and people all over the world follow suit indiscriminately, things will become easier to handle. History is not afraid of repetition or striking similarities. History is only afraid of uncertainty, and it is afraid that the clouds and mountains may obscure where we are and where we are going.

Western strategists who are overwhelmed by China's rapid rise do not want China to be a completely new situation. There is no historical precedent and no established reference. Everyone has to start by learning Chinese characters and reciting the chronology of the emperors. Dealing with this resurgent Middle Kingdom in a hurry and losing sight of the other will be a nightmare!

> Rulers like mature historical experience, successful ways of governing, and simplifying complex problems into a few types of models that can be operated. If China is not special and is just an enlarged militaristic Japan, or an Eastern version of Stalin’s Soviet Russia, then all historical resources about Western civilization’s victory over Eastern barbarism will be resurrected. The West, which has won two world wars and a Cold War, will have full confidence, full spirit, and full motivation to win again in a new crusade to defend freedom, defend civilization, and eliminate evil empires.

Is China really going to jump into this thousand-year-old Bagua formation?

Not to mention the certainty of victory or defeat in a battle with Japan in the small waters of the Diaoyu Islands, and how big the fruits of victory will be. On a larger scale, even if China defeats the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and forces Japan to declare defeat and surrender, and cede territory and pay compensation, so what? For China, this result may be a dream come true, but in the eyes of the West, it is just a repeat of the early stages of the rise of Germany and Japan. If the history of World War II really repeats itself, the decisive battle between the West and China will not happen until China has turned all of East and Southeast Asia into its own colonies.

In today's era, in today's world, is it possible for China to get to that point?

In the final analysis, China's rise is first of all a rise that is not recognized by the West. What the West has to do now is to prevent the whole world from recognizing it, making the whole world wary and on guard against it, and ultimately achieve the goal of suppressing and defeating China by stigmatizing and demonizing this rise. This is the biggest strategic reality facing China. China's relations with neighboring countries and the entire world are greatly constrained by this reality. All international disputes are also directly linked to this reality.

The disputes over the Diaoyu Islands, the Scarborough Shoal, and the Nansha Islands are not isolated disputes over island sovereignty and maritime delimitation. They are all strategic games in the larger environment. Every loss, every win, every gain and every loss is directly related to thousands of miles away, a hundred years later. I hope China's policymakers have a clear understanding of this. July 9, 2012