Wen Yang: What can be concluded from the Taiwan election?

> Wen Yang: What can be concluded from the Taiwan election? (Alberta Times) The 2012 Taiwan general election ended successfully. The winner, Ma Ying-jeou, won the election...

> Wen Yang: What can be concluded from the Taiwan election? (Alberta Times) The 2012 Taiwan general election ended successfully. The winner, Ma Ying-jeou, said in his victory speech, "This is a victory for our Taiwan line that pursues peace and prosperity." The loser, Tsai Ing-wen, said in her defeat speech, "Although we work hard, the road to achieving our final ideal is longer than we imagined." Both men mentioned "road" and both expressed the idea that the victory or defeat of the general election is not mainly about the victory or defeat of people but the victory or defeat of "road". Ma Ying-jeou won, and the road under her feet seemed broad and accessible; Tsai Ing-wen lost, and she said we are still one mile away from the top of the mountain. The result of the vote, 51.6% to 45.6%, seems to express this meaning: That's it. Even if Ma Ying-jeou's political performance is better, Ma Wupei's vote won't be much higher. Even if Su Jiaquan has more scandals, Cai Subei's vote won't be much lower. In the final analysis, these are two completely different roads being paved in Taiwanese society, with mainland China as the landmark. Normally, these two roads are always covered by layers of dense "issue" trees, making it difficult for people to see clearly. But when it comes time to vote in the general election, their outlines and directions are revealed. Ma Ying-jeou's blue road is very clear at the foot of the road, which is called "no unification, no independence, no force." But the distant goal is very vague, and he dare not say ultimate independence, nor ultimate unity. Tsai Ing-wen's green road has a clear goal in the distance, which is the independence and establishment of Taiwan, but the section below is very vague. There is no road map for how to move in the direction of independence. The blue road is essentially realism, people's livelihood, or pacifism. It relies on emphasizing the immediate, the benefits, and the safety to attract people. Those among the people who just want to live a good life in peace and earn more money can see and hear clearly. They nod along with the explanation and follow with a wave of their hands. The green road essentially belongs to the other side of the world, or radicalism, or adventurism. It attracts people by looking at the distant future, struggling bravely, and going forward one after another. People who are restless by nature and must pursue some political ideals will be inspired by it and follow it. They will be excited when they hear the slogans, and they will be motivated to the sky after being inspired. Simplify it a little more. The blue path can also be called "enterprise type", which treats Taiwan as a whole as an enterprise. No matter what the GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate are, as long as there is improvement year by year, it is the right path, and you can continue down the road. The green path can also be called "career-oriented". We strive for the whole of Taiwan as a cause. What is the ideal, what is the doctrine, what is the political system. As long as the rhetoric can impress people, there will always be people who will follow, and we can continue to move forward. Generally speaking, there are two types of people among the people: those who just want to live a good life in peace and make more money, and those who are restless by nature and must pursue some political ideals, each will account for a certain proportion. In any sufficiently large group of people, it is impossible to have one type of people but not the other. In economics and psychology, there has long been a dichotomy between "risk-averse" and "risk-loving", and the economic behavior predictions based on this are often very accurate. It is not difficult to imagine that following similar scientific methods, basic divisions such as "affordable" and "politically pursuing", or "enterprise-preferring" and "career-preferring" can be made in public opinion research. Once the proportions of different types among the public are measured, it will be easier to design political issues and obtain ideal support. Judging from the situation in recent years, the ratio between the "affordable" type (also a business preference and risk aversion) and the "political pursuit type" (also a career preference and risk preference) among the Taiwanese people is about half to half. Therefore, which of the paths represented by the blue camp and the green camp is more attractive to the public depends on which side is more attractive during the pre-election period. If the mainland increases its efforts on the economic front, the blue path representing the "affordable approach" will become more attractive, and the leaders of the blue camp will come to power; if the mainland increases the pressure on the political front, the green path representing the "political pursuit" will become more attractive, and the leaders of the green camp will come to power. Paying attention to this pattern is probably more meaningful than paying attention to specific leaders and specific policy statements. The experience of democratic politics is always summed up bit by bit. For this, I would like to thank the people of Taiwan