When Google launches a big move, should opponents tremble?

Google launches a big move, should opponents tremble? Regardless of the success or failure of Google's self-driving project, it shows that the commercialization of self-driving systems has accelerated significantly. Do 2025...

Regardless of the success or failure of Google’s driverless project, it shows that the commercialization of driverless systems has accelerated significantly. Companies that are planning for autonomous driving in 2025 or even 2030 can throw their plans into the wastebasket. Reluctant to give up previous investment in production lines and technology accumulation, and trying to squeeze out the last bit of profits from manned driving technology, will only fail. And it’s not necessarily Google that drives the final nail in. It’s just the gravedigger.

On February 2, Beijing time, Google released its 2017 Q4 financial report and full-year financial report. As usual, the company was profitable throughout the year, but in the Q4 fiscal quarter, it recorded a loss due to the "tax on funds returning to the United States." Although this is reasonable, it is unexpected. Perhaps in order to balance the mentality of investors, Google revealed that it will commercialize its driverless taxi business this year.

>This is not new news. Later in 2017, Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, put 600 driverless taxis into trial operation in Chandler, Phoenix, Arizona. These vehicles were all modified Chrysler seven-seat Grand Voyager provided by FCA.

Although Waymo CEO John Krafcik said that "this is the most advanced driverless technology we have ever invented," this matter did not attract the attention of the public opinion circle. There are several car companies and technology companies conducting trial operations of autonomous driving technology. Although Waymo has invested a slightly larger scale and implemented road tests in 25 cities across the United States, it is still classified as a technical test. Google was the first to invest in driverless technology, but it was not the first to conduct trial operations, so it was ridiculed as "always testing."

Now 600 vehicles have become thousands, and the word "trial operation" has been removed. Waymo public relations spokesman Johny Luu defined it as the beginning of driverless commercialization and proudly said: "We are ready."

Now the public opinion circle exploded, and Google once again grabbed the starting gun, which may reshape the pattern of the automobile industry. Simply put, a new era has arrived.

Let us first assume that Google has successfully broken through, then there is indeed no way to recover. Counting on customs, legal and technical barriers to stop the terrifying pace of new technologies is dooming itself to being swallowed up. If Google's self-driving technology can sweep the United States, it will only take two or three years to reach China (no matter what obstacles there are). Under the voice of the people on the other side of the ocean that "everyone who has used it says it's great", any artificial barriers will inevitably collapse.

Other rivals will no longer be able to receive generous financing support. Either rely on Google, or rely on Google's only remaining rival - people still do not believe that Google alone will monopolize the future of highway transportation.

In this way, Google will destroy the entire automobile industry. No matter they are technically weak and surrender, or they resist, it will be of no use. Consumer choices can crush seemingly strong companies into powder.

If a super oligopoly situation is formed, even FCA, which supports Waymo, will face doomsday judgment. The question is, has everything been settled?

I'm afraid that's not the case.

Google does not rule the world

First of all, Waymo is not as confident in its technology as it claims.

Phoenix Chandler is a city built in the desert. Although it covers an area of ​​150 square kilometers, it has a population of only 240,000. Even during the day, there are very few pedestrians on both sides of the wide road. Moreover, there are almost no three-dimensional transportation such as complex overpasses in this city. Needless to say, Google’s self-driving taxis won’t face a decent challenge here.

Google will put its first stop for commercial operations here. Although Arizona’s laws are loose on autonomous driving technology, more importantly, there will basically be no big trouble if it puts into commercial operations here. For a city with a population of 240,000 and almost every person having one car, the transportation capacity seems to be a bit excessive with thousands of APP-based ride-hailing vehicles available on demand.

It is difficult to say how much reference value and persuasiveness such road conditions have for central city operations.

Secondly, the platform cost has not yet reached the requirements.

The Dajielong platform itself sells for about US$40,000 in the United States. Considering the complex equipment (especially the expensive 64-line scanning lidar), the middle class cannot afford it, and there is no possibility for Google to make money through online ride-hailing. It is purely a display of skills to make money at a loss.

Krafcik said that the cost of overhead lidar has been reduced to US$7,000. However, reaching the level of solid-state lidar (currently around US$200) is unlikely in the short term. Therefore, Google chose the same commercialization path as other companies, landing on online ride-hailing instead of selling directly to individual consumers.

In addition to cost reasons, online ride-hailing companies are theoretically one company and are controlled by Google. If sold to individuals, the legal risks arising from product quality will be difficult to control. This also confirms that driverless technology is not yet mature.

Again, Google has always followed the technical route of local AI and has never tried a V2X (vehicle-to-vehicle information exchange) solution.

The world's first 5G high-speed commercial network will not be put into use until 2019 at the earliest (not in the United States), and Google does not control the intellectual property rights in this area. In fact, V2X is not Google’s strong point. The latter requires close cooperation with chip manufacturers, communication operators, component suppliers, and traffic management departments.

Waymo has never attempted to establish a broad technical alliance to build V2X. Google has built a remote command system, but it requires manual technical support in the background, and technicians sitting in the back seat of the car to solve faults and accidents on site, but it has nothing to do with the V2X system.

Google is not yet capable of declaring the death penalty for the V2X solution. Enterprises exploring the V2X road still have time. The amount of time still depends on how far Google has claimed victory.

However, waiting for Google's commercialization project to be launched is negative and immoral. Regardless of the success or failure of Google's self-driving project, it shows that the commercialization of self-driving systems has accelerated significantly. Companies that are planning for autonomous driving in 2025 or even 2030 can throw their plans into the wastebasket. Reluctant to give up previous investment in production lines and technology accumulation, and trying to squeeze out the last bit of profits from manned driving technology, will only fail. And it’s not necessarily Google that drives the final nail in. It’s just the gravedigger. ("Autobot" reporter/Huang Yaopeng) [Copyright Statement] This article is an exclusive original manuscript of "Autobot", and the copyright belongs to "Autobot". If reprinting is required, the reprinting party must contact "Autobot Media" (email: qcr007@126.com or phone: 010-63135250) to obtain consent and obtain reprint authorization, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Please pay attention to the "Autobot Media" public account (qcr0505)